And while a gaggle of political pundits have called it impossible, we might actually see the first brokered Democratic National Convention since 1952 in Chicago.
A “brokered convention” is the term used to describe the horse-trading for delegates that occurs when candidates come into a convention without a presumptive winner. It makes for the most interesting types of conventions.
In times of a brokered convention, the attention turns to the all-powerful super delegates who can be bought and sold- figuratively of course- to sway a nomination. They are charged with the task of taking one candidate to the next level.
Less than 100 delegates currently separate Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL) on their quest to secure the 2,025 necessary for the Democratic nomination. Needless to say, it’s a neck and neck, photo finish. More than ever before, a brokered convention seems conceivable, at the very least, and the democratic super delegates will be necessary to determine the winner.
On the GOP ticket, a brokered convention is less likely, but is possible. The Republican Party hasn’t seen one since 1948. Mike Huckabee, however, is still incorporating a brokered convention into his strategy. He said in a Texas radio interview that his goal is to force a brokered convention, and then show himself as the real Conservative to convention delegates.
But because the real focus is the Democratic race, since neither candidate has emerged as a presumptive nominee, we are forced to ask whether the 56-year brokered convention drought could end this year?
The answer, I think, is it’s still far too early to tell.
While the candidates are so close in delegate counts, about 4 months of primaries and caucuses still loom in the distance and the Convention is not even until the end of August.
Even though Obama had, of late, been on a storied 10-win streak in the primaries, Clinton vows to regain full speed and catch up. In this highly contentious election, honestly, anything, including a brokered convention, could happen. The race could stay close all the way to convention weekend and result in a massive horse-trading session,
or one candidate might just run away with it this month.
But looking ahead, if the DNC is smart, they’ll find a way to avoid a brokered convention. Such conventions are typically viewed as a detriment for the party in which they occur, both because of the apparent existence of instability within the party and because the emerging presidential candidate has less time to campaign by his or herself. In the 1952 brokered convention, Adlai Stevenson was given the democratic nod, but would go on to lose to President Dwight D. Eisenhower months later.
If it’s any indication of how things will play out, Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean says a brokered convention would be a disaster.
At different points in history, conventions have meant different things in the scope of a presidential nomination and eventual general election. Brokered conventions are perhaps the most pivotal kind of convention.
So super delegates are more important than ever.
Every election cycle introduces at least one buzzword that becomes part of our American vocabulary. This time around, and due to the importance they will undoubtedly play, that word is super delegates. From jokes at the academy awards to routine articles in the local newspaper, super delegates are popping up in almost every instance of presidential candidacy discourse.
The backroom, conventional wisdom regarding the inception of super delegates stems back as far as the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Both in that convention and in conventions to follow, the unspecified, unwritten role of the super delegates has been to make sure Americans choose the “right” candidate in the primaries and caucuses. Or, at least, they have served as a last ditch effort to make sure we don’t choose the “wrong” one.
When Rev. Jesse Jackson got just a little too close to a presidential nomination in the 1980s, the super delegates were there to knock him down.
In the case of a brokered convention this year, the super delegates would be the impetus to send a black candidate with an Islamic middle name into the general election campaign.
We’ve certainly come a long way since 1968, and should be darn proud of it.
But in the interest of American politics, a brokered convention might serve to weaken the process in a time when our political parties need to be completely sure of themselves, their candidates and their platforms. Hopefully between now and August, both parties find a way to bring rise to a presumptive candidate, because after all, the real focus is on the general election.
But whether or these conventions change history, they’re undoubtedly bound to be interesting.
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